Risk Modeling 3e

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 3/e, describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work integrates the art and science of risk analysis. It shows clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. Presenting basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, and incorporating numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion. The third edition will be updated as follows: 1. A CD containing about a dozen new solved risk-based problems *for each chapter* will be added to the third edition (the total may exceed 200 solved problems, plus six or more text-related case studies published in a variety of journals. 2. Chapters 1 and 2 will be restructured 3. An adaptive multiplayer HHM-game will be added to Chapter 3 4. Chapters 4-7 will be updated 5. Chapter 8 (risk of extreme events) will be updated with the addition of case studies on the 9-11attack and hurricane Katrina, the example problems will be improved 6. Chapter 9 will be updated with added examples 7. Chapter 10 will be improved by adding excerpts from a paper on the application of multiobjective decision trees to multiobjective risk impact analysis) 8. Chapters 11-16 will be updated 9. Chapter 17 on terrorism will be completely restructured and expanded 10. Chapter 18, the case study chapter, will be expanded The Appendices will be updated An accompanying web site will offer 200 example problems and case studies * Integrates the art and science of risk analysis. * Clearly shows how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. * Presents basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible. * Incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion. * An accompanying web site will offer 200 example problems and case studies.