Managing Risk

Managing Risk: the Human Element builds on the authors' previous work in which they presented a new concept and theory showing how errors can and should be analyzed so that learning and experience are accounted for. They analysed event data to produce a unique Universal Learning Curve showing that a minimum error rate exists, the cause of which is ascribed to the human element.With this book, the authors analyse a vast amount of data from errors and events in many industries including rail, nuclear, air transport, electric power generation and oil, and argue that the use of specific calculated experience parameters for each particular industry is vital to achieving a minimum error rate as defined by mathematical prediction. Accident investigation reports are usually very detailed, however common causal factors are rarely assessed in any detail. The authors analyse the most recent industry incident and accident reports to compare common causal factors and combinations of errors, introduce new ideas for the prediction, perception and calculation of risk and cover safety management in depth. Chapters include the Universal Learning curve, the Four Echoes, Rockets and Risk, the Probability of Human Error, Eliminating Mistakes, Risk Assessment, Safety and Risk Management Systems, Risk Perception and Learning.