Connections

Many people envision scientists as dispassionate characters who slavishly repeat experiments until `eureka' - something unexpected happens. Actually, there is a great deal more to the story of scientific discovery, but 'seeing the big picture' is not easy. Connections: Patterns of Discovery uses the primary tools of forecasting and three archetypal patterns of discovery -- the Serendipity, the Proof of Principle, and 1% Inspiration and 99% Perspiration -- to discern relationships of past developments to synthesize a cohesive and compelling vision for the future. It challenges readers to think of the consequences of extrapolating trends, such as Moore's Law, to either reach real machine intelligence or retrench in the face of physical limitations. From this perspective, the book draws 'the big picture' for the Information Revolution's innovations in chips, devices, software, and networks.